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Published: 04/20/2026

Assessment by the Fiscal Council: Assessment of the draft 2026 Annual Progress Report

Fiscal trends in 2025 diverged from fiscal sustainability due to exceptionally high expenditure growth. The cumulative deviation from the commitments set out in the medium-term fiscal-structural plan remained within the threshold, but only because of using up the fiscal space created in 2024. Projections by the Fiscal Council and the Ministry of Finance suggest that the cumulative deviation will already exceed the permitted threshold this year. At the same time, we estimate that further deviation could even double by the end of the current plan in 2028. Fiscal space, including for addressing the consequences of shocks, is therefore significantly constrained despite the adoption of the pension reform. In such circumstances, measures that would further worsen the public finance position must be avoided. Otherwise, given the current public spending efficiency, the risks to fiscal sustainability, and thus to the well-being of the population, will increase even further.

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