The state budget deficit, excluding intervention measures, was around EUR 1 billion in the first eleven months of this year. This is approximately half of the projected full-year deficit (EUR 1.8 billion), also excluding intervention measures.
The projected December deficit (EUR 852 million) is one of the highest to date. Only in December 2023 was deficit at a similar level (EUR 823 million). According to the Ministry of Finance’s outturn estimate, the estimated high December deficit will be mostly due to the roughly four times greater year-on-year growth in “core” expenditure than the average in the first eleven months. This growth will be mainly driven by expected higher expenditure on labour costs (winter bonus), investments, subsidies and transfer to the Health Insurance Institute of Slovenia.
Like the Fiscal Council, the European Commission has also assessed that the net expenditure growth in 2025 substantially exceeds the growth set out in the Medium-Term Fiscal and Structural Plan. The estimate for 2026 is similar. Consequently, the European Commission warned the Government that there is an increasing risk of incompliance with the allowed total growth in net expenditure in the period covered by the Plan. The Commission called on the Government to adopt measures to ensure the compliance of fiscal policy with the Plan and maintain the medium-term sustainability of public finances.