Monthly Information, April 2026

In 2025, the general government deficit increased to 2.5% of GDP (0.9% of GDP in 2024), mainly as a result of a significant growth in expenditure. Expenditure growth was mainly due to higher labour costs triggered by the start of the salary system reform and the introduction of winter bonus, continued increase in social benefits and stronger investments. The revenue growth slowed down, which was mainly due to poorer corporate results and slower labour market.

The general government gross debt (65.7%) decreased to the pre-COVID-19 level, mainly due to inflation. During the last month, financial market situation has deteriorated as a result of geopolitical tensions, but most of Slovenia’s borrowing for this year was done on favourable conditions.

In the first three months of this year, the state budget showed a deficit of EUR 700 million, an increase on the same period last year. Revenue growth remained solid (7.0%), mainly due to higher receipts from VAT, EU funds, and personal income taxes. However, it continues to be considerably lower than increase in expenditure (13.0%). This was mainly due to higher labour costs associated with the introduction of a new salary system and stepped up investment activity, particularly in defence. Expenditure growth is further driven by transfers to individuals and households and to the health insurance fund. The current budget forecast for the entire year shows a deficit of EUR 2.1 billion.

In accordance with the Fiscal Rule Act, the Government is required to submit to the National Assembly and to the Fiscal Council for assessment a draft of the annual report on the progress in the implementation of the medium-term plan. According to the law, the Fiscal Council will prepare an assessment of compliance of data on the outturn of the general government budgets including the net expenditure path set out in the medium-term plan within seven days of receiving the annual progress report.

Regular consultation of the Fiscal Council: Social Protection Systems and the Sustainability of Public Finances

The Fiscal Council organised its regular consultation on 2 April 2026 with experts in public finances and economic policy. The consultation was attended by Messrs Bogomir Kovač, Robert Ljoljo, Boris Majcen, Jože Sambt, Janez Šušteršič and Maks Tajnikar.

The discussion focused on the public finance challenges arising from demographic changes to social protection systems that have not been adequately adjusted, particularly in the areas of healthcare and pensions. The participants highlighted possible measures in these areas that could contribute to the long-term sustainability of public finances. They emphasised the need for a comprehensive approach to implementing reforms, awareness of their public finance implications, and pointed out the limitations regarding the possibilities for further adjustments. They also underlined the importance of the Fiscal Council in raising awareness and informing the broader public about public finance risks.

The Fiscal Council held a meeting with representatives of the project group preparing the JEK2 financing model

On 31 March 2026, the Fiscal Council met with representatives of the project group preparing the JEK2 (the new nuclear power plant) financing model. The discussion focused on possible financing models for the project and their implications for public finances.

As the government is formed, the Fiscal Council calls for policy commitments to be aligned with public finance realities

The new government will have to swiftly define its policy priorities, specify how they will be financed, and ensure that the announced measures are properly incorporated into the relevant fiscal planning documents. The decisive factor in ensuring fiscal sustainability will be the selection and effective implementation of the measures, rather than the ambition of the pre-election announcements themselves.

Against the backdrop of heightened expenditure pressures and uncertainty, fiscal policy cannot afford to diverge any further from the goal of maintaining medium-term fiscal sustainability. It is crucial that future decisions are based on credible assumptions and clearly defined measures, and that fiscal challenges are addressed promptly.

The Fiscal Council, therefore, expects the government to establish a framework that is transparent and sustainable over medium-term from the outset of its mandate. Only on this basis will it be possible to maintain the stability of public finances and trust in the country’s economic policy, as well as the capacity to finance key developmental, social, and security tasks.

Within its mandate, the Fiscal Council will continue to independently assess whether fiscal plans and policy measures contribute to the transparency, credibility and sustainability of public finances.

Following the formation of the government, and in accordance with established practice, the Fiscal Council will propose an introductory meeting with the Prime Minister and the Minister of Finance. The Fiscal Council will also propose presenting its activities to the parliamentary groups of the National Assembly and to the members of the Committee on Finance.

Monthly Information, March 2026

According to preliminary data, the state budget deficit for the first two months of the year totalled EUR 116 million, while in the same period last year it recorded a modest surplus (EUR 19 million). For the full year 2026, the budget deficit has been projected at EUR 2.1 billion.

In this period, revenue (excluding intervention measures) showed a year-on-year increase of 8.2%, which was much higher than in the same period last year. The growth in expenditure (excluding intervention measures) has remained high and broad-based, reaching 14.3% in the first two months of this year. The year-on-year growth in revenue and expenditure in the first two months of this year was significantly impacted by RRF funds. Without these funds, the increase in revenue and expenditure would be lower by 3 percentage points.

Monthly Information, February 2026

The state budget recorded the lowest January surplus (EUR 14 million) in recent years. Revenue increased three times slower than expenditure. The high growth in expenditure was fuelled by an increase in current spending (primarily an increase in subsidies and labour costs) resulting from economic policy measures, and transfers to budgetary funds.

Economic policy measures, particularly wage and pension reforms, also contributed to the increase in expenditure from the other three public finance budgets last year.

The increase in transfers from the state budget to social security funds highlights challenges in their self-financing.

In recent years, the volume of transfer to the health insurance budget has increased significantly. The adopted financial plan of the Health Insurance Institute of Slovenia (ZZZS) for 2026 envisages a balanced compulsory health insurance account, but is based on the extensive effects of the planned measures. If these effects do not materialise, the health insurance budget deficit could be the largest ever.

Last year, pension expenditure grew faster than nominal GDP, and its share expressed as GDP reached its highest level in five years (10.2%). The introduction of the winter allowance contributed significantly to the growth in expenditure from the pension insurance budget.

The municipal deficit fell to -0.2% of GDP in 2025. Transfer from the state budget increased again, partly due to the introduction of additional funds to reduce disparities between municipalities.