According to provisional data, the state budget deficit amounted to EUR -324 million in the first nine months of 2022, and without the direct impact of measures to mitigate the effects of the epidemic and inflation, the state budget would have a surplus of EUR 377 million. Comparison of the outturn so far and the recently adopted revised state budget for 2022 indicates that a deficit of EUR 1,716 million is expected in the last three months of this year, of which EUR 1,063 million is unrelated to measures to mitigate the effects of the epidemic and inflation.
Revenue excluding the direct impact of epidemic and inflation mitigation measures was 20.2% higher on a year-on-year basis in the first nine months of 2022. According to the adopted revised budget, the growth of this revenue excluding the above-mentioned epidemic and inflation mitigation measures (hereinafter: “cleaned revenue”) is expected to slow down to 8.1% in the last three months of this year.
Expenditure excluding the direct impact of epidemic and inflation mitigation measures was 9.9% higher on a year-on-year basis in the first nine months of 2022. According to the adopted revised budget, the growth of the “cleaned expenditure” is expected to strengthen to 29.3% in the last three months of this year. This would mean that the “cleaned expenditure” in the last three months of the year would average around EUR 1.5 billion per month, which is around EUR 0.5 billion more than in the first nine months of this year.
The total level of state budget expenditure for COVID-related measures from March 2020 to the end of September 2022 amounted to EUR 5,445 million; EUR 652 million of that in the first nine months of 2022. The revised budget shows that a further EUR 435 million will be spent by the end of the year.
The direct financial impact of the measures taken so far to mitigate the impact of the price increases on the state budget this year is estimated at EUR 440 million. Half of this impact is expected to be realised in the last three months of the year.
The outturn of the state budget in the first nine months confirms the Fiscal Council’s assessment that the unrealistically high regular spending entitlements set in the revised budget adopted in October last year were not properly recognised in the revised budget and, consequently, were not adjusted. Thus, the revised budget, in particular with over-imposed expenditure levels, does not constitute an adequate basis for the preparation of budget documents for the next two years, as the actual outturn at the end of the year will clearly be lower. As in the previous two years, such an approach to budgetary planning opens room for even higher spending growth next year.
On 30 September, the Fiscal Council received the draft budget documents for the next two years. In accordance with the Public Finance Act, the deadline for the assessment of the proposal for the amended Framework for drafting state budgets is 15 days, and the deadline for the assessment of the state budget proposals for 2023 and 2024 is 20 October at the latest.