According to provisional data, the state budget deficit amounted to EUR –2.641 billion in the first eleven months of 2021, while without the direct effect of COVID-related measures, the deficit would have amounted to EUR –577 million. According to the Ministry of Finance’s estimate of the outturn in September, the state budget deficit is expected to amount to EUR –3.958 billion this year, which is around EUR 1.2 billion more than projected in the budget adopted last autumn.
Revenue in the first eleven months was 19.1% higher than in the same period last year or 8.9% higher without taking into account the direct effect of COVID-related measures.
Expenditure in the first eleven months was 14.7% higher than in the same period last year or 8.2% higher without taking into account the direct effect of COVID-related measures totalling EUR 2.587 billion. The latter is predominantly due to investment and labour costs.
The total level of state budget expenditures for COVID-related measures since March 2020 amounts to EUR 4.591 billion. The largest individual measure was allowances to employees of around EUR 1 billion, of which around EUR 800 million were paid in the first eleven months of this year. The Ministry of Finance’s September estimate of the outturn for 2021 shows that, within the framework of expenditures for COVID measures, labour costs in the last month of this year are expected to amount to around EUR 160 million, which is about two times more than the monthly average to date.
According to the Ministry of Finance’s September estimate of the annual outturn for 2021, state budget expenditure in December is expected to be EUR 2.4 billion, which is around half or EUR 800 million more than in December last year. The year-on-year expenditure growth, not taking into account the effect of COVID-related measures and investment, is expected to increase from 5.7% in the first eleven months to 49.3% in December.
The data confirm the Fiscal Council’s warning in its assessment of the budget documents that the actual outturn is likely to be lower than these estimates. As a result, the projections for the coming years in the adopted budget documents are again not based on appropriate bases. This increases the risks for a structural deterioration of public finance. These risks also derive from some legislative proposals that are already being considered in the National Assembly and the measures taken following the adoption of the budget documents.