According to provisional data, the state budget deficit amounted to EUR -22 million in the first five months of 2022, while without taking into account the direct effect of COVID-related measures, there would have been a surplus of EUR 309 million.
Revenue in the first five months of 2022 on a year-on-year basis was 17.3% higher, or 20.1% higher excluding the direct effect of COVID-related measures.
Expenditure in the first five months of this year was -9.2% lower on a year-on-year basis, or 14.4% higher excluding the direct effect of COVID measures totalling EUR 402 million.
The total level of state budget expenditures for COVID-related measures from March 2020 to the end of May this year amounts to EUR 5,194 million.
The decrease in the deficit compared to the same period last year is mainly due to lower expenditure on COVID-related measures and revenue growth as a result of a recovery in economic activity. If there is no significant deterioration in the economic situation by the end of the year, we estimate that revenue will be higher than projected in the state budget. As a consequence, the deficit should also be lower if the expenditure target is met. On the other hand, the key short-term downside risks are an increase in labour costs if trade union demands are met, and the recovery of financial losses to oil product sellers or possible additional measures to limit the impact of high prices on households and the economy.