Upon the adoption of one-off anti-crisis measures, the Fiscal Council decided to continuously monitor their fiscal impact and to regularly update its assessment. This time we are publishing the fourth assessment of the actual impact of one-off anti-crisis measures, which includes the likely final impact of the first anti-coronavirus legislative package, while the financial impact of other measures is still largely indeterminate due to their further implementation. The actual fiscal impact of measures is smaller than estimated previously upon the adoption of the legislation. The total actual value of all measures with a direct fiscal impact amounts to EUR 1.5 billion, almost half less than estimated by the Government upon their adoption. Among further measures to provide liquidity, the possibility of measures of deferred payment and payment in instalments of tax liabilities (approximately EUR 250 million) were adopted together with two guarantee schemes providing guarantees totalling EUR 2.2 billion being available, of which according to available data, guarantees amounting to only EUR 76 million have so far been issued, as well as the possibility of a deferral of payment of loan obligations. The results of simulations of all the measures show that, due to measures taken, economic activity in 2020 would be approximately 1.5% higher than projected in the scenario not involving measures.
The Fiscal Council will publish a more detailed analysis of the impact of the measures adopted to mitigate the consequences of the epidemic as part of the assessment of the revised state budget for 2020, foreseen by mid-September. The Fiscal Council expects that, as part of adopting budget documents in the coming months, the Government will produce its own assessment of the actual fiscal impact of the measures adopted in accordance with the principle of transparency and, despite further uncertainty, present in a credible way further measures to mitigate the consequences of the epidemic on economic activity and public finance.